ABSTRACT
The March 2023 issue of NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery shows health care organizations overcoming obstacles to develop cutting-edge programs to meet patients' needs. This issue of NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery contains articles, case studies, and research reports on retail health, telehealth in a conflict zone, equitable access to Covid-19 antivirals, dementia care, screening for adverse childhood experiences, and the ongoing health care workforce crisis.
ABSTRACT
In the face of great uncertainty and a global crisis from COVID-19, mathematical and epidemiologic COVID-19 models proliferated during the pandemic. Yet, many models were not created with the explicit audience of policymakers, the intention of informing specific scenarios, or explicit communication of assumptions, limitations, and complexities. This study presents a case study of the roles, uses, and approaches to COVID-19 modeling and forecasting in one state jurisdiction in the United States. Based on an account of the historical real-world events through lived experiences, we first examine the specific modeling considerations used to inform policy decisions. Then, we review the real-world policy use cases and key decisions that were informed by modeling during the pandemic including the role of modeling in informing planning for hospital capacity, isolation and quarantine facilities, and broad public communication. Key lessons are examined through the real-world application of modeling, noting the importance of locally tailored models, the role of a scientific and technical advisory group, and the challenges of communicating technical considerations to a public audience.